Get ready for the Polar Coaster - Graybeard Outdoors
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post #1 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-26-2019, 08:51 PM Thread Starter
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Default Get ready for the Polar Coaster

Isn't January always cold and snowy?

https://www.iheart.com/content/2019-...r-this-winter/

Get ready for a cold and snowy winter. The 2020 Farmers' Almanac is predicting another winter of below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation for most of the country. The annual Almanac, which has been published every year since 1818, is warning of a "Polar Coaster Winter" with the temperatures plummeting in January and multiple storms bringing heavy snowfall across the country.

"This may mean frequent freefalling precipitation as well as strong and gusty winds. January 4-7 and 12-15 could, depending on where you live, mean copious amounts of snow, rain, sleet, and ice," the Almanac warns.

The bad weather will continue for most of the month and bring cold arctic air that will keep the temperatures low as the calendar turns to February.

"And for those who live Northeast of the Texas Panhandle to the western Great Lakes, watch out for what could prove to be a memorable storm producing hefty snows for the Great Plains during the third week of January. This system will cause temperatures to plummet and drag the coldest Arctic air across the rest of the country into the beginning of February."

The Almanac is predicting that on Groundhog Day, Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow. It warns that people in the Northeast might see the frigid temperatures last until April.

While two-thirds of the country will be dealing with a rough winter, people living west of the Rocky Mountains can expect relatively normal weather throughout the winter.

"We expect yet another wild ride this winter, with extreme temperature swings and hefty snowfalls," Pete Geiger, editor of the Almanac said.

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post #2 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-26-2019, 09:16 PM
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Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow...
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post #3 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-26-2019, 10:50 PM
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I guess that means we might see a dusting or two of snow. That's more than we get most winters. I think I've seen 6" or more maybe 3 or 4 times in my life time and I'm 74.



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post #4 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-27-2019, 08:31 AM
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Huh, the Farmer's Almanac needs to get with the times. Haven't the greenies explained to them that we have global warming caused entirely by the US and cold is no longer happening? I'm amazed that this old source is so far behind what is going on with the weather today.
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post #5 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-27-2019, 10:10 AM
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They have a good record of rendering useless forecasts since the 1700s. Their predictions are worded about the same as horoscopes, and most of us could make wild guesses and be at least as accurate.
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post #6 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-27-2019, 10:42 AM
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Any of us could make the same generic weather predictions and be about as accurate as the local TV "meteorologists"...50% seems to be their average.
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post #7 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-27-2019, 01:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by conan the librarian View Post
They have a good record of rendering useless forecasts since the 1700s. Their predictions are worded about the same as horoscopes, and most of us could make wild guesses and be at least as accurate.
NO there was a online article on it some years back and their accuracy long run is no worse than the U.S. Weather Service.
There prediction for this time of year, this year was, accurate.

RR
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post #8 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-27-2019, 02:37 PM
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The Farmer's almanac is much like the U.S. Weather Service in that if you make enough predictions you're bound to hit it right once in a while.

I much dislike it when forecasters use the term "normal", or above or below "normal", when giving forecasts. Normal is nothing more than an average over a period of years, so it's completely "normal" to have temps, or rainfall, or snowfall, that is above or below the "normal" - otherwise there wouldn't be an average!

I predict January in the northern tier of states will be cold and snowy, less so in the southern states, and somewhere in between in the middle states.
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post #9 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-27-2019, 02:57 PM
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What i expect from any weather forecast is that it must be actionable. Neither farmers nor weather service annual forecasts are actionable. Farmers forecasts are made 18 months before they're published.

Does anyone actually apply the farmers forecast in a way that definitely benefits them, or is the almanac just the long running bathroom reader I've always believed it to be?
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post #10 of 13 (permalink) Old 08-27-2019, 03:18 PM
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My vote for most actionable forecast was george carlins hippy dippy weatherman: forcast for tonight. Dark.
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