Coronavirus expert still claims CV is a bad cold. - Graybeard Outdoors
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post #1 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 08:17 AM Thread Starter
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Default Coronavirus expert still claims CV is a bad cold.

Despite reports out of China, WHO and CDC fear and vax marketing. - -->

Coronavirus Expert in Leaked Analysis: 'This is Just a Severe, Localized Common Cold' -- Health & Wellness -- Sott.net
www.sott.net

john nicholls hong kong coronavirus
With the death toll climbing each day, fear and uncertainty have spread farther and farther around the globe as coronavirus continues to captivate the world's attention. However, John Nicholls, a pathology professor at the University of Hong Kong, says he knows when the virus will become inactive.

In a private conference call organized last week by CLSA, a brokerage firm based in Hong Kong, investment analysts had a chance to ask Nicholls, one of the world's foremost experts on the topic, questions about the novel coronavirus. News of the private conference call was first reported by The Financial Times, and in the days since the call, more details of Nicholls' analysis have surfaced on social media and elsewhere online, including a transcript of the call.

The transcript of the call showed Nicholls believes weather conditions will be a key factor in the demise of the novel coronavirus. Referencing the SARS outbreak from 2002 and 2003, Nicholls said he thinks similar weather factors will also shut down the spread of the novel coronavirus.

"Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature, and 3. Humidity," Nicholls said in response to a question about when he thinks confirmed cases will peak, the transcript showed.

"Sunlight will cut the virus' ability to grow in half so the half-life will be 2.5 minutes and in the dark it's about 13 to 20 [minutes]," Nicholls said. "Sunlight is really good at killing viruses."

For that reason, he also added that he doesn't expect areas such as Australia, Africa and the Southern hemisphere to see high rates of infection because they are in the middle of summer.

Regarding temperatures, Nicholls said the warmer the better for stopping the spread of the virus, according to the transcript of the conference call.

"The virus can remain intact at 4 degrees (39 degrees Fahrenheit) or 10 degrees (50 F) for a longer period of time," Nicholls said, referring to Celsius measurements, according to the transcript. "But at 30 degrees (86 degrees F) then you get inactivation. And high humidity -- the virus doesn't like it either," he added, the transcript of the call showed.


However, Nicholls also said that he doesn't consider SARS or MERS, a Middle Eastern novel virus that spread in 2012, to be an accurate comparison for this year's outbreak. Rather, the novel coronavirus most closely relates to a severe case of the common cold.

"Compared to SARS and MERS, we are talking about a coronavirus that has a mortality rate of eight to 10 times less deadly to SARS to MERS," Nicholls is quoted as having said on the conference call. "So, a correct comparison is not SARS or MERS but a severe cold. Basically, this is a severe form of the cold."

Similar to a common cold, the surrounding environment of the outbreak plays an important role in determining the survivability and spreadability of the virus, he continued. Because of the impending shift in seasons, Nicholls said he expects the spread of the virus to be curbed in a matter of months.

"I think it will burn itself out in about six months," Nicholls said.

According to the transcript, Nicholls elaborated on exactly when he expects the novel coronavirus to subside as investment analysts posed more questions.

"The environment is a crucial factor. The environment will be unfavorable for growth around May," Nicholls said. "The evidence is to look at the common cold -- it's always during winter. So the natural environment will not be favorable in Asia in about May."

Average temperatures typically reach as high as 86 F in Wuhan, the outbreak's epicenter, on June 17. The AccuWeather forecast calls for temperatures ranging from a high of 64 F to a low of 30 F over the next seven days.

When asked about the probability of the novel coronavirus becoming endemic, Nicholls responded, "If it is like SARS it will not be endemic. It most likely will be a hit and run just like SARS," according to the transcript.

Experts that AccuWeather has spoken to previously have stopped short of linking weather to the spread of the virus.

Earlier this month, Andrew Pekosz, Ph.D. professor and vice chair of the W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology & Immunology at Johns Hopkins University, told AccuWeather cooler weather provides more favorable conditions for the spread of most respiratory viruses.

"Many respiratory viruses transmit better at low temperature and humidity, but we have no data on how this might affect 2019-nCoV transmission," Pekosz said in an email to AccuWeather on Feb. 4.

"Respiratory coronaviruses do appear more frequently in cooler months (late fall, winter). Since we don't know how this virus was transmitted within its natural host, it's difficult to predict if it will have the same pattern as human respiratory coronaviruses," Pekosz said at the time.

Nicholls' comments, while made privately, represent the most definitive tie to the weather a health expert has made yet.

At the University of Hong Kong, Nicholls has spent the past 25 years studying coronavirus and he served as a key member of the team that characterized SARS. The Hong Kong University Faculty of Medicine's Clinical Research Centre also created the world's first lab-grown copy of novel coronavirus, according to CNN correspondent Kristie Lu Stout, giving researchers a major breakthrough in understanding the behavior of the virus.

However, in an interview with Lu Stout, Nicholls said there is one key difference between prior outbreaks and the current spread of the novel coronavirus. Unlike previous versions of coronavirus, the novel coronavirus has been able to be spread before symptoms present themselves in patients.

But despite that frightening trait, Nicholls' long-term optimism hasn't changed in other public remarks that he's made recently.

"My feeling is that this is going to be just like SARS, that the world is going to get a very bad cold for about five months," Nicholls told CNN last week.


AccuWeather reached out to Nicholls on Tuesday for comment and is waiting to hear back.

The World Health Organization (WHO) officially designated the virus COVID-19 on Tuesday, adding that the first vaccine could be available in 18 months, according to Reuters.
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post #2 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 08:53 AM
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First vaccine could become available in 18 months? Your first post about the virus said a common cold and there is a vaccine for it. Do I need to say more??????
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post #3 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 10:52 AM
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Yes, China is building makeshift hospitals and crippling it own economy by spreading needless unsubstantiated gossip about a common cold just to get the attention of the world like some needy teenager... Makes sense.

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post #4 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 11:08 AM
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I guess ebola is also just like a "common cold"... except that you die from it!!!!
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post #5 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 02:19 PM
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How does one become an "expert" on a brand new disease?
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post #6 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 03:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWBear View Post
I guess ebola is also just like a "common cold"... except that you die from it!!!!
They start to bleed from body orifices. Survival rate is very low. Our last bout with Ebola the little nurse survived
but she was also young. The other guy didn't make it, it was already to late for him.
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post #7 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 04:53 PM
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They start to bleed from body orifices. Survival rate is very low. Our last bout with Ebola the little nurse survived
but she was also young. The other guy didn't make it, it was already to late for him.
What’s a body orificeses?
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post #8 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 06:30 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buckskin View Post
Yes, China is building makeshift hospitals and crippling it own economy by spreading needless unsubstantiated gossip about a common cold just to get the attention of the world like some needy teenager... Makes sense.
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Originally Posted by oldandslow View Post
How does one become an "expert" on a brand new disease?
According to the article - -->

''
At the University of Hong Kong, Nicholls has spent the past 25 years studying coronavirus and he served as a key member of the team that characterized SARS. The Hong Kong University Faculty of Medicine's Clinical Research Centre also created the world's first lab-grown copy of novel coronavirus, according to CNN correspondent Kristie Lu Stout, giving researchers a major breakthrough in understanding the behavior of the virus. ''
^^^ Which makes Dr. Nichols a Coronavirus world expert; certainly more expert than keyboarders Purebred and Buckie!



Unless they're culling dissidents and useless eaters. Everybody retires at age 50 in PRC to make room for youngers coming up.
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post #9 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 06:59 PM
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Well while I am at my noble keyboard I will ask the question to TM7. How can there be a vaccination against the common cold as you call coronavirus if in fact there isn't a vaccination for the common cold? At least that's what I keep reading. Of course maybe all that I have read is other keyboard warriors making obscene assertions like myself. Lord knows we got a bunch right here on GBO. Maybe I'm not reading the same articles as you or better yet maybe I'm right and you're wrong. How's that?
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post #10 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-14-2020, 07:03 PM
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I bet that last remark brings out the keyboard warriors 😂
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