Math is hard, even for an MSNBC panic-spreading virology expert - Graybeard Outdoors
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post #1 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-10-2020, 02:33 PM Thread Starter
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Default Math is hard, even for an MSNBC panic-spreading virology expert

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...gy_expert.html

March 10, 2020
Math is hard, even for an MSNBC panic-spreading virology expert
By Andrea Widburg
MSNBC and math haven't had a good week. A few days ago, talking heads made a third-grade mistake when hypothetically divvying up Bloomberg's advertising budget among Americans. And on Monday, a guest virologist announced that 20% of Americans are going to die from the coronavirus, which is an embarrassing miscalculation.

It was just a few days ago that Brian Williams and Mara Gay mindlessly repeated a meme saying that, instead of spending $500 million on advertising, Bloomberg should just have given all 327 million Americans a million dollars each. The correct answer is that Bloomberg spent $1.52 per American.

On Monday, a guest again went stupid about math, this time while trying to explain how many Americans will die from coronavirus. According to Dr. Joseph Fair, only 80% of the population will survive:

"We're honestly behind the curve," Fair claimed, adding that "getting testing up and running is the most essential step."

"Getting testing up and running in every place we can, in every city, in every public health laboratory around the country is key for us to understand how widespread this epidemic is. This is not to fear monger. It would be irresponsible for us to create panic when it's undue," Fair said. "That being said, we know 80 percent of the population is going to survive and a typically 15 to 20 percent rate of mortality for those individuals that are both elderly or have underlying conditions."

Mediaite, from which the above quotation comes, doesn't question Fair's math. Instead, it takes the numbers at face value and then attacks Trump:

The number is much higher than the World Health Organization's reported 3.4 percent mortality rate this month, which in turn was higher than previous mortality rate estimates around 2 percent.

Last week, President Donald Trump disputed the reported 3.4 percent mortality rate, telling Fox News' Sean Hannity, "I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number… Personally, I would say the number is way under 1 percent."

Even a mildly savvy innumerate should be able to spot the problem with Fair's math. The way you determine a disease's mortality is by looking at its effect on the entire population. In this case, the higher mortality prediction from WHO, based on looking only at people who get really sick, is 3.4 percent, while the lower mortality prediction, which includes everyone who gets the flu, no matter how mild the case, is 1 percent or less. In other words, even under the worst-case scenario, 96.6 percent of the population will still survive.

Fair's confusion arose because he forgot that it's only the very old (over 80 years) or very sick who will have a 15- to 20-percent mortality rate. The very aged, however, do not come close to making up 20 percent of the population. The 75- to 84-year-old cohort is only 4.4 percent of the population (and presumably that number is weighted toward those under 80), while the cohort over 85 is only 1.5% of the population.

Even if — God forbid — every person over 80 in America were suddenly to die, a most unlikely event, 95% of Americans would still be alive. Adding in the chronically ill is unlikely to change that number much.

Fair made a foolish mistake (presumably he knows better), but both MSNBC and Mediaite ran with the error to undermine Trump's presidency. These people are both evil and stupid. (Dr. Drew agrees about the evil they're causing.)

Here's the deal with the media: they don't know what they're talking about, so analyze everything they say before you start to worry.

If you'd like a more clear-eyed, less hysterical analysis of the real risks of the coronavirus, you might want to read one or both of the following articles:

Alan Reynolds's COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates.
https://www.cato.org/blog/covid-19-d...-who-estimates

Michael Fumento's Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/corona...han-you-think/

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post #2 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-10-2020, 02:39 PM
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They are Democrats, they can't even determine their gender by looking in their pants like the rest of us, what do you expect?

Go Donald Go!!
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post #3 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-10-2020, 02:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rosewood View Post
They are Democrats, they can't even determine their gender by looking in their pants like the rest of us, what do you expect?
Now that's funny!
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post #4 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-10-2020, 04:07 PM
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The ONLY way to tell a Male chromosome from a Female chromosome is to pull down their GENES.

FUN at the Democrat's expense...

One million is the number 10 multiplied by itself 6 times ( 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 = 1,000,000). One million is indicated in mathematics, science, and engineering as 10^6 = 1,000,000. One million dollars for EVERY American is the equivalent of $10^6 times 357 million = 327 times $10^(6+6) = 327 times $10^12 (that is ten to the 12th power).

327,000,000
x 1,000,000
327 * 10^12

Just how BIG is 10^12.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BING
Ten to the 12th power is equal to 10 being multiplied by itself 12 times. Ten to the power of 12 is 1,000,000,000,000, or one trillion.
How large was the MSNBC mistake?


They OVERINFLATED Bloomberg's spending 233 TRILLION times (= $327 trillion/$1.53).

Last edited by land_owner; 03-12-2020 at 09:42 AM.
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post #5 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-10-2020, 04:23 PM
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How big was the Doctor's mistake?

20% death rate IN AMERICA's 327 million people equals 71.4 million AMERICANS.

The AVERAGE pandemic death rate from COVID-19 (according to the lying WHO above) is between 1% and 3.4% so say 2.2% Worldwide. If applied to the US population it is equal to 7.2 MILLION Americans. Not even close...

It is doubtful that 1,000 will perish in America (my gut - my bet). time will tell.

So, if I am correct, or even REMOTELY close, the Doctor is off by:

7.2 times 10^6 divided by 1,000 (10^3) which equals 72,000 times INFLATED.

If you or I told WOPPERS this big, we'd be laughed out of the GBO Forums, if not BANNED forthwith.
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post #6 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-10-2020, 04:53 PM
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Thanks for that summation land_owner. It really puts the magnitude of their mistake (aka exaggeration) in perspective. And I sure am glad you did the math and not me!!

But rosewoods comment was a whole lot funnier!
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post #7 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-11-2020, 06:43 AM
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Biden is no better, he implied that 150 million folks had been killed in the US by firearms since 2007, and it looks like he is winning the Democrat nomination. That is dang near half the current US population.


Rosewood

Go Donald Go!!
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post #8 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-11-2020, 10:10 AM
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Surely none of you expect the news media to correct mistakes like this. They deal in doom and gloom and promote hysteria and panic to raise their ratings and sell print media. If it bleeds it leads and they are wringing every drop of blood they can from the coronavirus turnip. Ignore the mainstream media and find what doctors and researchers are telling us about this bug.


The Bloomberg thing was just stupid but I'm sure many people believed it.
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post #9 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-11-2020, 12:26 PM Thread Starter
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Coronavirus has proved that entire world can be easily manipulated through fear by simply controlling media & academia.

“All that was great in the past was ridiculed, condemned, combated, suppressed — only to emerge all the more powerfully, all the more triumphantly from the struggle.”
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post #10 of 12 (permalink) Old 03-11-2020, 01:00 PM
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We didn't need CORVID-19 to tell us that.

We have seen its effects since well before "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington".
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